NBA Draft Prospects: Five To Pick, Five To Ignore

You know who's good at the NBA Draft? No one. Because the draft is an anarchic mess of guesswork, gaudy suits and guaranteed contracts. Some of us here at No Regard know nothing about the college players that are about to become our favorite NBA players, while others like to puff out their chests and act like they know so much. Kidding. Totally JK Rowling. We have two guys who actually do know what they're talking about: Adam and Mugsy2Manute.

Here, those two share their thoughts on five players who every team should target and try to pick no matter what, and five players who every team should avoid no matter what. I think you'll be surprised with the results! (I have no idea if you'll be surprised. I don't know any of these people. Oh, and they left out Anthony Davis because we're trying to enlighten, not waste your time.)

Five Targets

Royce White



Royce White has the most upside in this draft.

With the talent toploading the lottery, such a statement may seem surprising. But given where White is projected to go (most have him selected around pick 22), there’s no player with greater potential value in the bottom end of the first round. Why is that? Well, at 6’8”, 270 lb., tremendously athletic and deceptively fast, White’s body is ready for the NBA. His game is even better. For someone at that size, his handle is air tight; he’s got moves that make point guards salivate. Around the basket he can finish equally well with his right and left, seemingly no matter the circumstance. On top of those unimpeachable qualities, add a solid low post arsenal and you’ve got a player that will be a worthy addition to any NBA team. It’s true that White’s mid-range and long game leave something to be desired; it’s also true that he has a history of anxiety problems and has spent some time away from basketball. Particularly, he doesn’t seem to like planes. But these drawbacks, both on and off the court, are remediable. The talent is unmistakable. Royce White might be a risk, but given the potential reward, he is one worth taking. - Mugsy

Terrence Ross

Terrence Ross is the kind of player who one can easily see being a big-time bust, or at the very least, a boring journeyman who should have gone in the second round.

He’s a lanky swingman who showed great scoring abilities in a relatively weak conference, but who can’t handle the rock and leaves a lot to be desired on defense. Could be the mayor of Bust City, no? But the thing that makes Ross so appealing to me is that he is guaranteed to be a successful offensive role player on just about any NBA team—and that’s even if he doesn’t bulk up or improve his handle. His ability to work in transition as well as catch, jump and shoot—and shoot well—cannot be undervalued. He’s just as likely to throw down an insane alley-oop as he is to set up in the corner and drain it in someone’s eye, and it often seems like there’s no way he’ll miss it, either way. If he can put on some weight and get a good dribbling coach, watch out. - Adam

Austin Rivers



Austin Rivers got swag.

Before he even got to Duke, Rivers was making noise. A video circulated showing him crossing up John Wall like Wall was some schlub from the street (or Devin Harris). He talked shit to Bron before he had any right to do so. Then came the UNC game. At its end, he did everything he wasn’t supposed to do: With Duke down two, Rivers dribbled the clock out until nearly no time remained, didn’t even feign a look to pass and then shot a three over a seven-footer who was playing defense so tight that Rivers could have driven right by him to tie the game. Such a scene says the following to an NBA scout: Here’s a player with either limited basketball IQ or a willingness to intentionally make the “wrong” decision. Given his pedigree, it’s likely the latter. So, then he made the wrong decision. But he also made the shot, leaving fans with the most indelible image the UNC-Duke rivalry has seen in a good, long time. Though the rest of Rivers’ season was characterized by some streakiness, he made numerous other big plays over the course of the year. Most importantly, even when he missed, he didn’t hesitate. No doubt, there were a few bad shots in that pool, but not enough that it should scare anyone off. So many shooters these days seem to go through spells where they suffer from a lack of confidence. Forgive me if I don’t see that problem in Austin Rivers’ future. - Mugsy

Marquis Teague

Marquis Teague, for my money, is the most NBA-ready point guard in this draft.

The knocks on him are legitimate: He struggles in the half-court offense, he’s inconsistent and he turns the ball over too much. But this past year—and especially throughout March—Teague successfully ran the point for what was essentially a mediocre NBA team with the star-studded Kentucky Wildcats. His speed and open-court vision make the John Wall comparison go beyond a shared alma mater, and Teague can finish around the basket just about as well as Wall or any other former Wildcat points. He’s young and he’s going to have some very sloppy games, especially if he gets thrust into a starting position too soon. But his leadership and ability to stand out as a scorer on such a talent-crowded team this past spring give me high hopes that with some hard work, he can develop into a very solid all-around point guard with an extremely high upside. - Adam

Tyler Zeller

Don’t scoff.

Tyler Zeller may have the least flashy game of any talked about prospect, but there’s a reason he’s high in every mock draft around. Zeller’s got polish, and lots of it. You see him under the basket, on offense and defense, and he just knows what he’s doing. He goes up for shots at the right time, passes it off (to the right teammate!) when it’s not and knocks down his free throws when called upon. On defense, Zeller’s lack of athletecism is made up for in savvy, allowing him to accumulate more rebounds and blocks than anyone with his limited raw assets should be able to. Sounds rather underwhelming, no? Perhaps. But, cliche as it is, the lack of capable seven-footers in the league makes one as uniformly solid as Zeller a hot commodity—and he should be. He’s ready to contribute now and whatever NBA team ends up with him will be better for it. - Mugsy

Five To Avoid

Jared Sullinger

I know, too easy.

The hate has been flying the way of Jared Sullinger ever since he decided to go back to Ohio State last year in the face of the lockout. He and Harrison Barnes seemed to be clear top five picks during that weak draft, and despite Sullinger’s improvements facing the basket, the extra time for scouts to watch him made his weaknesses more glaring. He’s just not very quick or athletic and one could see him struggling at the NBA pace and going up against the more fast-footed power forwards of the league. Try to imagine him contesting a Chris Bosh 18-footer. There’s no way he’s getting out on that, and he sure as shit can’t overplay him either. On top of all that, his back issues seem to be creating lots of fears, even leading to his not being invited to the draft green room. Sullinger seems like a decent enough guy, and I’d love to see him make us all eat crow, but I just don’t see that happening. - Adam

Kendall Marshall



Let me get something out of the way: Kendall Marshall is not only the best passer in this draft, he may be the best passer to come out of college in the past 10 years.

The guy’s ability to dish is insane, and he could easily average close to double-digit assists within a few years. But to me, his liabilities are so damning that they far outweigh the benefit of his ability to move the ball and make him easy prey for the top point guards in the league. His lack of scoring is troubling, but not nearly as troubling as his flat-footedness on the defensive end. Marshall is simply not quick enough on defense to play against the lightning bolts doubling as point guards in the current professional landscape. It’s hard for me to dislike him this much, as I am truly a passing nerd, but I would have to stay away from someone who so clearly cannot hang with opponents in the areas that are becoming increasingly important for the league’s PGs. - Adam

Perry Jones III

PJIII is a very exciting basketball player, exciting enough that the New York Times Magazine threw him on a cover last year.

He didn’t get to show how exciting he is all that much for Baylor, a team that didn’t get a lot of transition opportunities despite decent athleticism up and down their roster. So what we did see a lot of was Jones’ mediocrity when it comes to any other kind of offense. His jump shot stinks, his post-up moves stink and his work off the ball should have been much better considering his quickness. Basically, if he doesn’t have his face to the basket and a first step on a defender, Jones is horrendously inefficient with the ball. I could watch dude dunk all day, but not if it meant having to sit through all his other possessions. Combine that with his underachievement in the blocks category, and Jones starts to look too much like a one-trick pony to take a gamble, even if that trick can be pretty damn impressive. - Adam

Bradley Beal

Beal’s star has been undeniably and irrepressibly rising.

It’s not clear why. Like Austin Rivers, he’s an undersized two guard; unlike Austin Rivers, he’s got no discernible killer instinct. Nothing during Beal’s freshman year mesmerized. He played fine most always, but never truly great. More, for someone who gets compared favorably with Ray Allen, Beal’s much touted shot fell flat. Its mediocre percentage and Beal’s generally uninspired season have somehow led to a shit-ton of hype. Something about this guy gets people pumped in a serious way, enough for many to project him as a number two pick in a crazy loaded draft. The experts and scouts have made up their mind and it may end up they’re right. But until Beal show’s me something to suggest it, I’ma go ahead and presume that they’re wrong. - Mugsy

Andre Drummond

Andre Drummond is obviously going to suck.

On an overhyped team that severely underperformed, Drummond was the worst offender. It’s obvious that he knows how to play basketball. Rarely will one see him take a shot farther than five feet away from the basket, except for foul shouts—and he shoots those at a clip below 30 percent. When I saw a not very good Seton Hall team tattoo the Huskies last year, I only found out Drummond was a highly ranked prospect after the game. You would excuse any similarly unknowing observer of that game from responding with incredulous surprise. Drummond made zero impression other than being the biggest player on the court. That’s not impressive against a middling Big East team, and will cut it even less in the NBA. Who knows? As with Beal, maybe there’s some method to the madness surrounding Drummond’s potential. But probably not. - Mugsy